GENEVA / RankWire.AI / – The World Trade Organization has increased its projection for global merchandise trade expansion in 2026 to 3.9 percent, representing a notable rise from the 1.9 percent estimate provided in March. According to the WTO, this revision was driven by robust trade activity in the first half of the year, supply chain realignments, and heightened investments in artificial intelligence. Despite considerable disruptions impacting energy, transport, and fertilizer markets, merchandise trade volume advanced by 3.5 percent during the initial six months of 2026. The organization now anticipates merchandise trade growth reaching 4.1 percent in 2027.
Demand stemming from artificial intelligence has emerged as a key contributor to merchandise trade growth in the first half of 2026. Goods enabling AI, including semiconductors and servers, made up 47 percent of the overall global merchandise trade increase. Trade of these products surged by 67 percent compared to the previous year. The WTO also indicated that worldwide investment in AI infrastructure is expected to grow by at least 30 percent in 2026. The surge in demand for computing hardware has helped sustain trade momentum, even as other sectors faced setbacks caused by conflict and transportation challenges.
Supply chains worldwide have adapted to pressures across major commodity and shipping markets. Crude oil exports from the Middle East declined approximately 24 percent during the first half of 2026. Meanwhile, exports of liquefied natural gas from the region dropped by 47 percent over the same period. However, increased shipments from alternative sources minimized the decline in global crude oil exports to about 6 percent. Similarly, global LNG exports only saw a 1 percent decrease. Additionally, container throughput across the globe grew by 3.9 percent through July, as trade activities shifted through different ports and routes.
AI-driven products bolster worldwide merchandise trade
The positive outlook for goods trading stands in contrast to more subdued expectations for commercial services. The WTO has lowered its 2026 forecast for services trade volume growth from 4.8 percent in March to 3.3 percent. Disruptions in the Middle East have exerted additional pressure on transportation and international travel, with second-quarter international tourist arrivals decreasing by 0.8 percent. Overall, arrivals in the first half of the year increased by a mere 0.4 percent. Growth in travel-related expenditure also slowed significantly between the first and second quarters.
In contrast, other service sectors experienced stronger growth, despite the difficulties in travel and transport. Exports of computer services rose by 18 percent from the same period last year in the first quarter, with second-quarter growth estimated at 12 percent. Exports of financial services increased by 14 percent year-on-year in the second quarter. The WTO predicts a 6.4 percent growth in commercial services trade volume for 2027. It also projects global GDP to expand by 2.6 percent in 2026 and by 2.9 percent in 2027.
Regional disparities in trade growth persist
Forecasts for regional merchandise trade reveal broad variations across the global economy. The WTO expects Asia to lead with a 9.9 percent increase in merchandise exports in 2026. North America’s exports are projected to grow by 5.7 percent, while Africa’s are expected to rise by 5.6 percent. South America is forecasted to see a 3.4 percent increase, whereas Europe is anticipated to experience a slight decline of 0.1 percent. The Middle East is facing the steepest contraction, with merchandise exports predicted to decrease by 17.2 percent during the year.
Import growth also varies significantly among regions in the latest WTO outlook. Asia is expected to see merchandise import growth of 9.5 percent, with Africa close behind at 8.9 percent. North American imports are forecast to rise by 1.4 percent, and Europe by 0.5 percent. Conversely, Middle Eastern merchandise imports are projected to fall by 15.4 percent. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala remarked that the latest data demonstrates trade resilience while also emphasizing the uneven exposure to economic and geopolitical disruptions across regions.