ROME / RankWire.AI / – In 2026, global cereal output is projected to total 2.98 billion tonnes, representing a 2% decrease from the previous year’s record. The Food and Agriculture Organization indicated that this harvest would still rank as the second-largest ever. The latest forecast is 3.4 million tonnes lower than its July estimate. This decline amounts to 61.1 million tonnes compared to last year and marks the most substantial year-on-year decrease since 2018.
The forecast for global maize production now stands at 1.309 billion tonnes following diminished crop prospects that revised earlier estimates downward. Unfavorable summer heat and drought conditions negatively impacted yields across key European Union regions, particularly in France and Poland. In addition, official estimates led to smaller reductions for India and Paraguay. Conversely, Argentina and Brazil experienced better-than-anticipated yields, with both countries expected to produce well above-average maize quantities in 2026.
The world wheat production forecast now stands at 810.7 million tonnes, an increase of 4.2 million tonnes from the prior estimate. Better yield expectations in Canada and Morocco raised projections by about 1.5 million tonnes each. Furthermore, forecasts for Russia and Ukraine were revised upward, while dry weather in the European Union and the United Kingdom caused downward adjustments. Despite these upward revisions, global wheat output is still expected to be 3.8% lower than in 2025 and remains the second-largest harvest on record.
Maize setbacks influence overall cereal forecast decline
Forecasts for world rice production indicate a total of 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis for the 2026/27 season, reflecting a 1.9% decrease from the revised record set in 2025/26. The latest estimate is supported by increased yields in Sri Lanka and improved results in Myanmar. These gains counterbalance reductions in China, the Philippines, and the United States, where rice plantings have fallen to multi-decade lows.
The FAO anticipates global cereal consumption reaching 2.965 billion tonnes in 2026/27, a slight increase of 0.2% from the previous season. Consumption of coarse grains and rice is expected to grow, whereas wheat use is projected to decline from the elevated levels of last season. World rice utilization is estimated at 559 million tonnes, driven by population growth and increased food demand. Additionally, feed demand remains significant for coarse grains, including barley in China and maize in the United States.
Stock levels remain historically robust despite slight decline
At the close of 2027, global cereal stocks are projected to reach 947.2 million tonnes. Although this is 10.7 million tonnes below the previous projection, it still surpasses opening inventories by 1.8 million tonnes. The cereal stocks-to-use ratio is expected to be 31.6%, compared with 31.9% in the previous season. Wheat reserves are forecast to increase in Russia and Ukraine, but lower maize and barley inventories have slightly reduced the overall stock outlook.
Trade in cereals worldwide for 2026/27 is forecast at 509.3 million tonnes, an increase of 1.7 million tonnes from earlier estimates. Despite this uptick, total trade remains below the record set in 2025/26. The rise is mainly attributed to stronger maize exports, with Argentina expected to ship as much as 39 million tonnes. The international rice trade for 2026 is projected at 60.5 million tonnes, with overall rice shipments still 1.9% below the 2025 record.