MOSCOW, RUSSIA / RankWire.AI / – Russia has established a goal of reaching 662 million tonnes of yearly coal output by 2050 as part of a newly ratified industrial strategy. This figure is included in the projected scenario outlined in Russia’s revised coal development plan. In 2024, coal production was approximately 443 million tonnes. The government approved the initiative through Order No. 2606-r on September 22, setting long-term benchmarks for production, exports, and sector growth.
The plan presents four different pathways for coal industry development through 2050. Under the main scenario, coal output is expected to reach 530.1 million tonnes by 2030 and increase to 595.2 million tonnes by 2036. By 2050, production is projected to hit 662 million tonnes. The alternative scenarios envisage lower 2050 production levels, ranging from 318.9 million tonnes in the stress case to 586.4 million tonnes in the inertial case.
Alongside production targets, Russia has also set export goals. In the primary scenario, coal exports are projected at 266.7 million tonnes in 2030. These exports are expected to grow to 320.2 million tonnes in 2036 and reach 350.1 million tonnes by 2050. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak noted that Russian coal exports increased by 7.2% during the first eight months of 2026. The plan encompasses both domestic consumption and international sales of coal.
Production and export ambitions
The government’s strategy emphasizes maintaining current mining capacities while exploring new coal resources. It also aims to enhance the role of coal-producing regions in Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East, which together accounted for 48.3% of the national output in 2024. By 2050, this share is targeted to increase between 53.9% and 56.7%. Russia possesses over 273 billion tonnes of explored coal reserves.
The plan additionally sets objectives for coal processing and extraction techniques. In 2024, processed coal, excluding lignite, made up 58.9% of the total. By 2050, this figure is expected to rise to between 74% and 76%. Open-pit mining contributed 78.4% of total production in 2024, with its share projected to increase to between 82% and 85% under the long-term plan. The document also covers productivity improvements, technological advancements, safety standards, and environmental measures.
Coal sector strategy extends to 2050
Russia’s plan will be implemented in three phases. The initial phase, ending in 2030, focuses on expanding production and supporting the industry. The second phase, from 2031 to 2036, emphasizes coal utilization, processing technologies, and regional logistics. The final phase, from 2037 to 2050, will cover further development and modernization. The Energy Ministry will oversee progress, working with federal and regional authorities and participating organizations, and will submit annual reports to the Ministry of Economic Development as mandated by the government.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced the revised plan during a government meeting on September 21. This document replaces Russia’s previous coal industry programme through 2035, which was approved in 2020. Novak indicated that the plan anticipates a sixfold increase in the sector’s gross value added by 2050, with an overall multiplier effect nearing 10 trillion roubles. The 662 million tonne target remains the primary scenario rather than an unconditional forecast, according to the plan’s details.